3M Open 2024: The birdie-maker our PGA pro is betting in Minnesota

There are six players sitting atop the odds board for the 3M Open. Certainly, Sam Burns impressed fans last week at the Open Championship for three rounds, but how is that Sunday 80 sitting with you? Probably better than 3M Open’s favorite Tony Finau’s 81 in round two, leading to an MC. Following them on the board, we have Sahith Theegala and Akshay Bhatia, who have also traveled across the planet to Blaine, Minn., carrying a missed cut at Royal Troon in their mental luggage.

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Akshay only missed the cut by one, but Theegala tied Tiger at 14 over par! Looking down the list, amateur Luke Clanton comes next. His stock will only rise after Nick Dunlap’s second win of the season on Sunday at the Barracuda Championship. Prior to Dunlap’s amateur PGA Tour win in January, it had been over 30 years since the last time that happened. Beware of any recency bias. Speaking of which, everyone loves to produce content on Keith Mitchell. Mitchell’s last win on tour came over five years ago in 2019. That’s his only win.

Watch the below video for our favorite bets and players we're fading for the 2024 3M Open:

Winners at the 3M Open don’t always tend to be favorites on the odds board. In five previous editions, only one player (Finau) won the event at pre-tournament odds under 80-1 (!). The four other editions winner’s odds average out to 133-1. Keep an open mind in Minnesota as we build out our outright betting cards. TPC Twin Cities rewards solid ball-strikers who can avoid double bogeys and make 20-plus sub-par scores.

When the board opened, I was looking for one player in particular: Erik van Rooyen. Van Rooyen has the ability to put the ball in play and score at will. In his last six birdiefest starts, EVR has a win and four top-eight results. His worst finish is a top 25.

• November 2023 - World Wide Technologies championship (Win)
• January 2024 – The American Express (T-25)
• February 2024 – Mexico Open (T-8)
• March 2024 – Cognizant Classic (T-2)
• May 2024 – Myrtle Beach Classic (T-4)
• June 2024 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (T-6)

The average winning score at those six events is 22-under par. The average winning score at the 3M over the first five years is 19-under par. Erik opened at 40-1, and I believe many will see what I’m seeing and bet him. The South African has two PGA Tour wins and the proven ability to make birdies. Van Rooyen’s weakness is around-the-green play. On harder tests where bogey avoidance becomes a factor, he usually meanders just inside the cutline.

On easier tests like TPC Twin Cities, watch out for the skilled South African. I’m grabbing EVR on Monday afternoon. Betting specialists will start shouting his name once they see the trends and be reminded of one more very important detail … van Rooyen went to the University of Minnesota. The 3M is played just 20 miles away from campus. The 2012 Minnesota State Amateur winner is going to take his familiarity with Twin Cities’ agronomy and combine it with his recent scoring form to take home the 3M trophy.

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Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA Tour. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on SportsGrid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.