3M Open DFS picks 2024: Why Billy Horschel is an easy fade this week

After a thrilling close to major season where Xander Schauffele captured the claret jug, the PGA Tour returns to the states for the 3M Open. The task at hand at TPC Twin Cities will draw a stark contrast to the questions being posed last week at Royal Troon, but there is plenty to play for this week in Minnesota. Players are running out of time to improve their position in the FedEx Cup standings heading into the stretch run before the playoffs.

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Lee Hodges defends his title this week, and the field will be headlined by Sahith Theegala, Sam Burns, Billy Horschel and 2022 3M Open champion Tony Finau. TPC Twin Cities, which features a water hazard on 15 out of 18 holes, is sure to be provide plenty of excitement. Given that water is the defining characteristic of the golf course, the Arnold Palmer design plays far more like a Florida golf course than many of the northernly bentgrass courses we have grown accustomed to this summer. Let’s dive into the slate.

Watch the below video for our favorite bets and players we're fading for the 2024 3M Open:

$10,000 range

Play: Tony Finau, $10,500:

I would not read too deeply into Tony Finau’s missed cut at the Open Championship. He caught the wrong side of the weather draw and returns to a course where he has already experienced a tremendous amount of success. In five appearances at TPC Twin Cities, Finau has recorded three top-10 finishes, including a win in 2022 and a seventh last year. This is the perfect bounce-back opportunity for the six-time PGA Tour winner.

Fade: Sahith Theegala, $10,300:

Similar to Finau, I won’t judge Sahith Theegala too harshly on a missed cut at the Open Championship. I am more concerned about his course fit at TPC Twin Cities and historical performance here. Theegala has failed to make the cut in three appearances, and I worry about his ability to consistently keep the ball in play off the tee on a course where water comes into play on 15 of 18 holes.

$9,000 range

Play: Keith Mitchell, $9,400:

Outside of Tony Finau, there might not be a more consistent ball-striker in this field than Keith Mitchell, and similar to Finau, he also possesses excellent course history at TPC Twin Cities.

Fade: Billy Horschel, $9,600:

I was wildly impressed by Billy Horschel’s runner-up finish last week at the Open Championship, but I am expecting a bit of an exhale at TPC Twin Cities. Royal Troon was a full-on mental and physical examination, and I’m dubious that those who contended late into the tournament will be able to keep their foot on the gas for one more week. Horschel is a man of his word who committed to this tournament far before his incredible week at Troon, but this feels like a very logical letdown spot for the eight-time PGA Tour winner.

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$8,000 range

Play: Erik Van Rooyen, $8,600:

Erik Van Rooyen has quietly been playing some great golf this year, and he is coming off a performance at the Scottish Open where he gained over 7.5 strokes ball-striking. Van Rooyen has recorded top-10 finishes this year at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the Myrtle Beach Classic, the Cognizant Classic and the Mexico Open, which are all courses that bear a lot in common with TPC Twin Cities.

Fade: Cam Davis, $8,900:

Though Cam Davis is a recent winner at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, I still have some serious concerns about his volatility. Davis has had a very up-and-down season due to his lack of ball-striking consistency, and he still ranks outside of the top 60 in recent off-the-tee play, recent approach play, good drive percentage and recent putting. I’m happy to take my chances on the fade of the Australian at this price.

$7,000 range

Play: Jhonattan Vegas, $7,500:

Jhonattan Vegas always deserves a look on water-heavy TPC golf courses, and it should not come as a surprise that he has already recorded a runner-up at TPC Twin Cities. Vegas is also coming off back-to-back top-25 finishes where he has gained over seven strokes ball-striking, and I expect him to continue his strong play on a course that fits his game to a tee.

Fade: Mackenzie Hughes, $7,700:

Mackenzie Hughes put together a surprisingly strong performance last week at the Open Championship, but I still have some major concerns about his ball-striking consistency. Hughes still ranks outside the top 100 in this field recent off-the-tee play, good drive percentage and recent approach play, so I’m expecting a bit of regression this week out of the Canadian at TPC Twin Cities.

Flier: Austin Eckroat, $7,200:

Former winner of the 3M Open, Michael Thompson, once compared TPC Twin Cities to PGA National, and I can absolutely see the similarities. Both courses are defined by their plentiful water hazards, and Austin Eckroat was able to claim victory at the Cognizant Classic this year via his accuracy off the tee and precise approach play. This skill-set should play beautifully at TPC Twin Cities as well, and I’m expecting a big week out of the 25-year-old.

$6,000 range

Play: Carson Young, $6,900:

Similar to Austin Eckroat, Carson Young is an incredibly accurate driver of the ball with a ton of ball-striking upside. With top-10 finishes this year already at the Mexico Open and John Deere Classic, Young has quietly showed some great form on similar driver-heavy courses that reward aggressive play.

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Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. As well as contributing to Golf Digest, Andy is also a data analyst and writer for Run Pure Sports, where he covers PGA Tour betting and daily fantasy. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports