British Open 2024: Handicapping the Sunday contenders at Troon

TROON, Scotland — If you like bunched leaderboards, Sunday at Royal Troon is your personal slice of golf heaven. An astounding 12 golfers are four shots or closer to the lead in the British Open, and it's very, very easy to talk yourself into any of them winning ... or losing.

Which is exactly what we're about to do. What follows is our best argument for each of those 12 to go home carrying the claret jug, followed immediately by a dose of ice water as we take the air out of our own argument and tell you why it's actually hopeless. This is going to be a very, very good Sunday.

Billy Horschel (-4)

Why he could win: On the grittiest of Saturdays, Horschel was King Grit, fighting off the rain, the wind, the cold and whatever nerves he felt to keep up his assault on the top of the leaderboard. His ball-striking was beyond solid, but what really stood out was his short game—right up to the 18th hole, where he finally gave a shot back, he was making par after par from off the green. That's going to be huge when the pressure mounts Sunday, because the only thing we know for certain is that nothing will go according to script, and the winner will have to scramble his head off. Toughness matters even more tomorrow, and in a game of small margins, his numerical advantage and his willingness to grind make him the guy to beat.

Why he'll lose: Remember what we said about grit and toughness? Well, actually ... Sunday’s conditions are going to be breezy by dry, which means that inevitably one of the 12 contenders will go low and run away with this thing. That means Horschel's scrambling abilities aren't going to be quite as valuable as they were Saturday, and as a guy who has never been in a position remotely like this before—he only has two top-10s in 42 major starts with his next best showing a T-23—he's one of the least likely to be that guy. Forget it.

Thriston Lawrence (-3)

Why he could win: Lawrence was the hottest player on the course Saturday, shooting a 65 in the early wave. That earned him a spot in the final group, and who's to say he can't duplicate the feat? This is your "ride the hot hand" pick.

Why he'll lose: This is a big, big stage for the 27-year-old South African, and no disrespect, but there are literally zero signs that he's ready for it. You almost think sneaking into the last group is the worst thing that could happen—in five previous majors, his best finish is T-42. Sorry, but he did his damage Saturday before the elements got nasty, and by Sunday's end, Thriston is going to look more like Liston ... in this photo.

Sam Burns (-3)

Why he could win: After his first major top-10 ever at Pinehurst a month ago, Burns is proving that he's ready to take his game to the next level. The five-time PGA Tour winner has shown true grit here and there, particularly in his 2023 WGC-Match Play win and ’22 victory in a playoff over Scheffler at Colonial. He'll be ready and eager to take on the Sunday nerves, and like Lawrence, he shot a 65 Saturday, so his form is sublime.

Why he'll lose: It's still too much, too soon for the 27-year-old. His T-9 in the U.S. Open is a damp squib at majors. To compare him to Lawrence one more time, he got a little fortunate in playing his round in easy conditions Saturday, so even being close to the lead is a little fluke-y. PGA Tour wins are not majors, and he doesn't have the steel to win a major just yet.

Russell Henley (-3)

Why he could win: He's tied for the lead with Shane Lowry in greens in regulation and is one of the best ball-strikers in the field with a 15th ranking in strokes gained/off the tee and seventh in approach. Unlike the two guys above, he's put himself in contention a few times at majors, and with a 66 in his pocket Saturday, he's got a much better chance than the rest of the zero-time major winners among the top 12.

Why he'll lose: On a calm day, the winner is going to be someone who putts the lights out, and Henley hasn't been doing that at Troon. Plus, the fact that he's been close at a handful of majors is a mixed bag. He had a share of the lead at the 2021 U.S. Open and responded to that pressure with a 76. He's only won four times on tour in a career that's now more than a decade old and hasn't finished any better than T-20 in nine prior British Open starts (with five MCs). Until he can respond to major pressure with a great finish, there's no reason to expect Sunday will be the big day.

Xander Schauffle (-3)

Why he could win: Quite honestly, what's not to love? After winning the PGA at Valhalla, he no longer has the major monkey on his back, he's playing with house money, and he's been great all week in almost every category. It's been a terrific year for Schauffele, and can't you just see him nabbing a second major and suddenly making the Player of the Year decision a little more complicated? Also—this is important—he's the first contender other than Horschel who actually faced the wind and rain and came out with a sub-70 round. He's so ready.

Why he'll lose: Again, it's the putting—he's been OK this week, but not elite, and when you're not rolling in the putts, you're going to have a hard time winning what should be a horse race at Troon.

Justin Rose (-3)

Why he could win: Nobody—nobody—has passed the links test like Rose, who was the best player by far over the first two days considering how he excelled while on the really, really unlucky side of the draw. He came to play Saturday, too, in impossible conditions, going step for step with Horschel while the rest of the field was fading. The guy is locked in, has more experience (20 prior Open starts) than anyone and will be desperate in a good way to fill this hole in his résumé and win an Open for England.

Why he'll lose: The man is old! He turns 44 at the end of the month, and you could tell at the finish of Saturday's round that he was flagging. At some point, fatigue has to set in, and you don't see Rose as the kind of guy who's going much lower than 70. Sunday at Troon is going to be a young man's game.

Dan Brown (-3)

Why he could win: When everyone expected him to go away, he stayed steady, and that's due in part to his excellent play, but more so to the fact that he's a self-proclaimed "realist." He knows how hard the task ahead of him is going to be, but that knowledge gives the quiet Brown a kind of calm in what should be very nervous circumstances. Plus, as he showed in the opening round, he can drive the crap out of the ball and put up a great number (65). If you want someone to run away with it, why not him?

Why he'll lose: Because this is his first major, and his rounds so far—65, 72, 73—show exactly how flukey Thursday was. Sure, he managed to run in place for a while, but the fact that he held the lead at six while standing on the 17th tee Saturday, then managed to lose three shots in two holes, tells you everything you need to know about what will likely happen Sunday. It's one thing to play steady golf when you don't really know if winning is realistic, but we saw what happened to Brown when it started to look real. Expect him to fade hard.

Scottie Scheffler (-2)

Why he could win: Because he's the best ball-striker in the field, the World No. 1, incredibly clutch, and has a nose for winning. Who else can you possibly pick here? He's going to end his dream season with a second major for the sheer fact that in low wind and no rain, he will have more good birdie looks than anyone else. The chance to put him away was on Friday or Saturday ... for the rest of the field, it's too late.

Why he'll lose: He's the only guy in the top 12 without a round in the 60s, and while you have to be impressed with how he's hung around, the fact is that his putting has been abysmal—113th in the field by strokes gained. He just doesn't have the stroke to go low right now, and in general he just seems stuck in neutral at Troon.

Shane Lowry (-1)

Why he could win: Yes, he looked like crap in shooting a 77 on Saturday, but the sneaky truth about Lowry is that despite being Irish, he's not great in the rain. See also the 2022 Honda Classic, when he was close to the lead late, but absolutely melted both physically and mentally when it rained on him for the last two holes, handing the tournament to Sepp Straka. Guess what it's not supposed to do Sunday? Rain. Lowry's wedges are beyond good, and he'll be back on form. Expect a 66.

Why he'll lose: In truth, he knows he lost his chance on Saturday, and he's going to be hugely despondent knowing that a two-shot 36-hole lead turned into a three-shot deficit. There are too many people between him and the claret jug now, and he's just not driving the ball well enough to avoid the big mistakes that will keep him from going low.

Adam Scott (E)

Why he could win: Scott shot a Saturday 66 when conditions were ideal, then insisted he had no chance to win, thinking he'd be a good nine shots off the lead by the time the round actually ended—he never believed the rain would have much effect without attendant wind. Instead, he's four off, and within striking distance with another good round. This would be a fairytale final chapter of a long career, and Scott is going to feel like he has a new lease on life after the events of Saturday afternoon.

Why he'll lose: Too far away. Even a second-straight 66 probably won't do the job with nine guys ahead of him, and though the 44-year-old Scott won't be quite as exhausted as fellow veteran Rose, who had a harder fight in the third round, he's still just one day removed from shooting a 77. If anything, the 66 looks like an outlier.

Justin Thomas (E)

Why he could win: He can go very, very low! He's the most unpredictable golfer in the world, and when you roll the "JT at a major" dice, you might come up with a 63.

Why he'll lose: He can go very, very high! He's capable of posting a 78 out of nowhere, as he showed Friday, and you trust this man at your own peril. He's like Rory on steroids.

Matthew Jordan (E)

Why he could win: Uhhhhh ... honestly, we're forced to include him here because we wanted to include Scott and Thomas and this guy had the same score.

Why he'll lose: He is simply not good enough.