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British Open 2024: Why Patrick Cantlay may be a galaxy-brain pick at Royal Troon
Editor's Note: This article is published in partnership with Read The Line, a Golf Digest content partner.
Oisin Keniry/R&A
How ironic that the layout at Royal Troon has been compared to Dante’s Divine Comedy. The course rolls out in three stages just like the poet’s prose. Holes one through six are referred to as heaven. The scoring section of the course has three short par 4s and two par 5s. With the prevailing wind behind you many early rounds will look much better on the scorecard than they will end. Up next is purgatory. Players will change direction five times over the next six holes.
The middle of the golf course covers the most uneven terrain of Troon. A mix of elevation and orientation becomes the test through this stretch. The closing six holes play into the prevailing wind, ruin rounds, and are referred to as Dante’s hell. Here’s what’s most interesting about this week. The prevailing wind is absent! Throughout the practice rounds, players have felt wind from the southwest off the Firth of Clyde and the Irish Sea. As of Wednesday, the wind has shifted even more to come out of the south.
A quick analysis of the situation reveals the opening stretch of heaven will now play into the wind and hell downwind. These instant adjustments are difficult as players have been preparing a gameplan for a couple weeks based upon a prevailing northwest wind. Suddenly the strategy needed on the opening three short par 4s will be different. Will the two par 5s (holes four and six) be reachable? What about the “postage stamp?” The perfect little par 3 faces west. A south wind will come cross and push balls toward that perilous sand cellar to the right of the green. Wind out of the west off the water, and now that downhill wedge approach will really test you.
Watch the below video for Keith Stewart's betting analysis of the 2024 Open Championship on SportsGrid:
Coming into the 152nd Open Championship, I have done extensive research to learn who the most accomplished links players are. Part of that deep dive has also sent me down another Dante style spiral toward the best wind players. That analysis will serve us well. As the weather shifts, who contends most often in the windiest conditions? No surprise Scottie Scheffler leads that list but following him might catch your attention. Patrick Cantlay is the next name, Joaquin Niemann, Adam Scott, and then Cameron Smith close out the top 5.
With that knowledge I have made a move. I added a top-10 finish for Patrick Cantlay to my betting card at +400. The eighth ranked player in the world finished third at the US Open last month and fifth at the Travelers one week later. Cantlay has corrected his ball striking gaining strokes OTT in eight of his last 10 starts and six of his last seven on approach. Combined with his world class scrambling, I love his chances to return a ticket at Troon with ten places.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA Tour. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on SportsGrid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
