Betting Analysis
Genesis Scottish Open picks 2024: We're torn on Viktor Hovland
We are pleased to report that the panel is back in the winner's circle, with Stephen Hennessey and Andy Lack both cashing in on Davis Thompson at 28-1 to win the John Deere Classic. We even avoided the dreaded headline curse. Special stuff. We thank Scottie Scheffler for taking a few weeks off.
Despite this week's Genesis Scottish Open looking and feeling like a big-time event, Scheffler is still out of the picture, so we feel very good about potentially going back-to-back. Rory McIlroy returns from his hiatus this week, and the likes of Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg and Viktor Hovland will all be on hand. We have some takes on all of those names.
Our betting panel is comprised of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds of The Renaissance Club, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of RunPureSports.com, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down to see who we like this week at the 2024 Genesis Scottish Open
Genesis Scottish Open picks 2024: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Viktor Hovland (22-1, DraftKings) — Hovland’s trending toward something. I’ve liked the work I’m seeing with Joe Mayo here in North Berwick. Out of the elite players, he’s probably most motivated to find the winner’s circle this week to prove his game’s back. His tee-to-green play should make him the player to beat.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Tommy Fleetwood (20-1, FanDuel) — Like the rest of the world, I’m betting Tommy now that we’re out of North America. In classic Fleetwood fashion, he’s been hilariously consistent in results with one part of his game lacking each start. One of these weeks he’ll get it together and no better event to do that than one in Scotland. Along with Tom Kim, Tommy’s the only player in the field with consecutive top 10s at the Renaissance Club, making it three in four years after his playoff loss to Aaron Rai in 2020.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Tommy Fleetwood (20-1, FanDuel) — Fleetwood has played very well at the Renaissance Club in the past (second, T-26, T-4, and T-6 across the PGA Tour and DP World Tour) and enters with six straight top-26 finishes with strong showings at the majors. Every part of his game is on point right now.
Keith Stewart, Read The Line: Ludvig Aberg (16-1, FanDuel) — Back in November, Ludvig Åberg won a driver and putter fest on Sea Island alongside the Atlantic Ocean. Not quite a regular Scottish links, the Renaissance Club is closer to that world-class retreat than St. Andrews. With no wind this week off the Firth of Forth, the field will bomb away and only one guy (Rory) can do that better than Ludvig. Throw in a very opportunistic putter, and you have the recipe for Renaissance success. Åberg is also ranked fourth on approach. Ludvig already has one DP World Tour win and plenty of European experience coming from Sweden. While the other superstars look ahead to Troon, watch the young Swede capture another crown.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Min Woo Lee (28-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Min Woo returns to the site of one of his three DP World Tour wins (2021) playing some great golf, finishing runner-up at the birdie-fest Rocket Mortgage. It could take 25-plus birdies to win at the Renaissance Club with benign weather predicted all week. That fits Min Woo’s game—all three of his victories have come at birdie-fests.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Tom Kim (30-1, DraftKings) — Admittedly had to talk myself into this one as I’m not nearly as big of a fan of Kim’s game as many others are. But the combination of recent form and his incredible course history at the Renaissance Club is something I couldn’t resist. Kim has five finishes of T-26 or better in his last seven, including the runner-up at Travelers where he went toe-to-toe with Scheffler. As for his Scottish Open record, he finished solo third here in 2022, his coming out party, then T-6 a year ago, which he then followed up with a T-2 at the Open. He loves links golf and he appears ready to peak again for career win No. 4.
Andy Lack, Run Pure Sports and Inside Golf podcast: Viktor Hovland (22-1, DraftKings) — With four top-15 finishes in four appearances at the Open Championship, Viktor Hovland always seems to raise his baseline across the pond. Coming off a 20th-place finish at the Travelers Championship where he gained over five strokes off the tee, the young Norwegian is primed for a strong finish to the season.
Past results: We have another winner, with Stephen Hennessey and Andy Lack correctly predicting Davis Thompson’s maiden victory at 28-1 at the John Deere Classic. That’s Hennessey’s second of the year in the column (Akshay Bhatia 65-1 at the Valero) and Lack’s first. Our anonymous caddie leads the way with four while Christopher Powers and Pat Mayo check in next with two each.
Genesis Scottish Open picks 2024: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Caddie: Matthieu Pavon (100-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — The Frenchman is coming off playing in the final group of the U.S. Open, finishing sixth, and having a decent Travelers Championship. The winner at Torrey Pines this year has proven his ceiling can be as good as the elite players, and at these huge odds, he’s worth backing here and next week at Troon.
Mayo: Aaron Rai (50-1, FanDuel) — The Brit is averaging 6.5 strokes-gained/tee-to-green over his past five starts. That’s led to four straight top 20s and consecutive top 10s. This feels like it will go one of two ways: He misses the cut by eleventy billion strokes or Rai, in fantastic form, back on the British Isle, finally putting well, wins at the Renaissance Club for a second time. Probably over Fleetwood in a playoff again.
Gdula: Sahith Theegala (65-1, FanDuel) — Sahith missed the cut here last year with poor play overall but continues his upward swing in virtually every statistical category. It’s been a few weeks since he’s flashed, and now the number is long enough for him to be a value again.
Stewart: Aaron Rai (50-1, FanDuel) — We have been talking about Aaron Rai for a month plus in betting content. Over his last five starts, Rai is gaining over eight shots on the field. A large key to his success has been working with a new PGA Professional putting coach. He has four straight top 20s and two career wins on the DP World Tour. One of those wins was the 2020 Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club. As we expect inclement weather this week, who would be better to handle the links along the Scottish sea than a player who already wears two gloves.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Byeong Hun An (60-1, FanDuel) — Benny An opened up with a 61 last year en route to a T-3 finish, and he’s been playing great golf in 2024. His WD at the Travelers and a MC before that is a bit concerning, but that’s why we’re getting a great price. I’ll take a shot on him being healthy and that stellar ball-striking paying dividends at the Renaissance Club again.
Powers, Golf Digest: Thomas Detry (60-1, Bet365) — Unfortunately, this number has been bet down from 80-1, even 90 and 100 in some cases. Whatever, I still like it. Detry has showed up in all the biggest events this year, including two of the three majors. He also finished second here to Min Woo Lee back in 2021, and he’s coming in well-rested, having not played since the Travelers.
Lack: Wyndham Clark (45-1, BetMGM) — I always favor Wyndham Clark on golf courses that emphasize power off the tee and putting, and the former U.S. Open champion should feel right at home at the Renaissance Club. Clark has already recorded two top-25 finishes at the Doak design, and he is coming off a top 10 at the Travelers where the irons finally started to come alive as well.
Genesis Scottish Open picks 2024: Players We’re Fading
Caddie: Rory McIlroy (+750, DraftKings) — It’s too much for Rory this week—having to answer the questions of his speedy exit from Pinehurst, his 10-year major drought ahead of next week, and the limelight of being the defending champion. He’ll be using this week as prep work.
Mayo: Collin Morikawa (14-1, BetMGM) — England hasn’t been an issue for him. His Claret Jug can tell you that. Scotland? He’s 0-for-2 in cuts made.
Gdula: Viktor Hovland (22-1, FanDuel) — Hovland has gone MC and T-25 here the last two years, and the chipping struggles are back for him. There are some great names at the top this week, and so I’m not very into Hovland by comparison.
Stewart: Viktor Hovland (22-1, DraftKings) — It’s easy to get caught up in the Viktor Hovland craze. Will this be a bounce back week for him? There’s no doubt he is talented enough to finish inside the top 20, but I just don’t see a win coming. Over Hovland’s last 14 starts since the 2023 Open Championship, he has lost strokes around the green 11 times. The courses where his short game succeeds utilize long rough rather than closely mown areas. It’s tough to win when you are losing over two short game strokes per start over your last 10 events. I’m going to pass on Hovland until we get back to those venues where longer rough allows him to avoid this issue.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Collin Morikawa (14-1, BetMGM) — Morikawa has a missed cut in his only appearance at the Renaissance Club two years ago. The lack of distance here will keep me off him here. I think I’m like most people and saving my money to bet him next week at Royal Troon.
Powers, Golf Digest: Viktor Hovland (22-1, DraftKings) — Impossible to get a read on this guy over the last handful of months. He’s shown signs of being the future World No. 1 we billed him to be last summer (solo third at the PGA), but also shown signs of looking completely lost (MC at Masters, MC at U.S. Open). He’s coming off a top 20 at Travelers, but he lost strokes around the greens for the 10th time in 11 starts that week. Does not bode well for these next two weeks.
Lack: Collin Morikawa (14-1, BetMGM) — While Collin Morikawa is playing some solid golf now, I’m not entirely sold on the course fit. I prefer Morikawa on pure approach tests that emphasize accuracy off the tee and middle-iron play, and success at the Renaissance Club is far more about power off the tee and putting. It does not come as a surprise that the two-time major championship has failed to finish top 70 in both appearances at the Doak design, and I will be looking in other directions this week.
Genesis Scottish Open picks 2024: Matchups
Caddie: Xander Schauffele (+100) over Rory McIlroy (DraftKings) — Give me the champion from two weeks ago over the defending champ. I outlined why I don’t like Rory this week above. We’d fully expect Xander to be near the top five come Sunday.
Mayo: Hideki Matsuyama (+110) over Min Woo Lee (Bet365) — Look, I get Min Woo is popular this week and has a win at Renaissance Club in his past, but getting plus money to bet on Hideki, who is actually good, has to be an auto bet.
Gdula: Corey Conners (-105) over Wyndham Clark (FanDuel) — Clark came back to life last start with a T-9 at the Travelers, but Conners has been in form for quite a while and leads the field in strokes-gained/ approach over the last 50 rounds, per datagolf.
Stewart: Ryan Fox (+105) over Sahith Theegala (DraftKings) — Sahith Theegala has not made a cut across the Atlantic since the 2022 Open Championship. Granted, Theegala’s ball-striking has vastly improved in 2024, but his short game and putting have not. He’ll need those skills to succeed in Scotland. Conversely, Ryan Fox plays better outside the U.S. He has only missed one cut in the last five years at the Open and Scottish Open. A quick T-17 last week at the BMW, and he’s ready for a run at the Genesis with his firepower off the tee and putter.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Aaron Rai (-145) over Denny McCarthy (Caesars Sportsbook) — Rai is a past champion at The Renaissance Club, whereas Denny is making his debut appearance. Denny ranks in the bottom in SG/off the tee and SG/approach, compared to Rai who’s in the upper-echelons in the ball-striking categories in this elite field.
Powers, Golf Digest: Kurt Kitayama (-115) over Will Zalatoris (DraftKings) — Kitayama, who finished solo second here in 2022, has been perfectly mediocre in 2024. Perfectly mediocre is perfectly fine in this matchup again Will Zalatoris, whose back just cannot be trusted right now, especially in colder temperatures which are expected in Scotland.
Lack: Ludvig Aberg (-110) over Collin Morikawa (DraftKings) — This is an easy one, as Morikawa is my fade of the week, while Ludvig Aberg just missed my betting card. Aberg possesses the elite driving ability and putting upside to make some real noise at the Renaissance Club, while Morikawa has struggled tremendously at the Doak design.
Matchup Results from the Rocket Mortgage Classic: Mayo: 1 for 1 (McCarthy (-134) over Mitchell); Caddie: 1 for 1 (Im (-120) over Straka); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Griffin (-115) over Cole); Lack: 0 for 1; Gdula: 0 for 1; Powers: 0 for 1; Stewart: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Lack 18-8-1 (up 7.82 units); Mayo: 17-9-1 (up 7.61 units); Caddie: 17-9-0 (up 6.13 units); Hennessey: 14-9-4 (up 3.88 units); Gdula: 14-11-2 (up 1.35 units); Powers: 12-12-2 (down 0.18 units); Stewart: 12-14-1 (down 3.21 units)
Genesis Scottish Open picks 2024: Top 10s
Caddie: Tom Kim (+300, DraftKings) — His buddy Scottie Scheffler isn’t in the field, and he had a week-plus to recover after skipping the John Deere and MCing in Detroit. His tee-to-green play has been so good over the past month, and this is where he burst onto the scene a few years ago.
Mayo: Tom Hoge (+700, Bet365) — With the wind projected to be down for the week, a sharpshooter like Hoge stands to be one of the bigger benefactors. In Hoge’s last outing at the Travelers he led all players by more than three strokes in approach en route to a T-3 finish behind TK and Scottie. And, after missing the cut here in his 2022 debut, he rebounded with a T-19 at The Renaissance Club a year ago. He’s in far better form entering play his year.
Gdula: Hideki Matsuyama (+330, FanDuel) — Hideki’s game is locked in other than a poor showing with his irons at the Travelers, which is about as atypical as it gets. He’s great around the green, and his putting is trending up, too.
Stewart: Min Woo Lee (+300, Bet365) — Min Woo Lee has been quietly playing some solid golf for two months. Starting at the Masters, Lee has six straight top 26 or better results. That counts all three majors, and some birdie-fests as well. Min Woo won the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club in a playoff three years ago. A launching point for his professional career, it was the first time U.S. fans saw the Australian star play with some serious swagger. Lee’s elite length off the tee and scoring ability on and around the putting surface make him a factor to win this week. I’ll take the 10 places at a course where he’s comfortable and look to cash the ticket.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Aaron Rai (+450, Bet365) — Rai has been on a tear and returns to the site of his victory at the 2020 Genesis Scottish Open. Buoyed by work with his new putting instructor John Graham, Rai gained more than nine strokes/putting last week at the John Deere, which bodes well for the ball-striking maven at a familiar venue.
Powers, Golf Digest: Victor Perez (+850, DraftKings) — The Frenchman has very quietly piled up seven finishes of T-17 or better since late last Fall, and two of those have come in the last four weeks. Once a top-30 player in the world, Perez faded from the picture for a bit but is now sneaking around near the top of the leader board again. At just 31 years old, he’s still got plenty of good golf in him.
Lack: Jordan Spieth (+450, DraftKings) — Something about links golf always brings out the best in Jordan Spieth, and he has now finished top 25 in six straight Open Championships, and he also has a recorded a 10th-place finish at the Renaissance Club. Coming off a performance at the John Deere Classic where he gained over two strokes in both ball-striking categories, Spieth is finally trending back in the right direction.
Top-10 results from the Rocket Mortgage Classic: Everybody: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Hennessey: 9 for 27 (up 62.85 units); Mayo: 5 for 27 (down 2 units); Gdula: 5 for 27 (down 2.9 units); Caddie: 5 for 26 (down 4.05 units); Lack: 5 for 27 (down 9.55 units); Powers: 4 for 27 (down 12.1 units); Stewart: 4 for 27 (down 13.82 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. As well as contributing to Golf Digest, Andy is also the head of golf content for Run Pure Sports, where he covers PGA Tour betting and daily fantasy. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports