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John Deere Classic 2024: Our PGA pro reveals a betting advantage to cash in on at TPC Deere Run
Editor's Note: This article is published in partnership with Read The Line, a Golf Digest content partner.
Tracy Wilcox
The John Deere Classic is the only major U.S. professional tour in play this holiday weekend. Even the LIV Golf league is off! As such, with just one tour in action here in the states, we can take a deeper look at what it takes to play well (and cash some bets) at TPC Deere Run. In talking with officials, caddies and media on-site, I’ve learned a number of interesting edges. The first comes in reaction to the forecast.
The biggest blip on the radar is predicted for Friday afternoon. Steady wind will be blowing out of the northwest. The field will play two of the three par 5s and the short par-4 sixth into the wind. Those are three very prominent scoring holes. This will give an edge to the players in the afternoon wave on Thursday and the morning wave on Friday—causing the Friday afternoon crew to find other ways to go low. Jordan Spieth, Keith Mitchell and JT Poston all fall into that Friday PM wave.
If you are playing guys in that starting time rotation for DFS or H2H matchups, I would favor Andrew Novak, Nate Lashley, Justin Lower and Sungjae Im. The reason? These guys are the best combined par-3 and par-4 players in that wave. Par-3 players overall as an edge factor as well for the week. The four par 3s average 196 yards in length and cumulatively play over par. Last year, eight of the final top 10 finished inside the top 13 for par-3 scoring. That’s a significant trend and keeps these names in consideration: Sam Stevens, David Skinns, Novak, and Lee Hodges.
Watch the below video for Keith Stewart's betting analysis of the 2024 John Deere Classic on SportsGrid:
The PM/AM crew will also get soft green conditions as more rain is predicted on Thursday night. Will this increase the advantage? Depends on if you can control spin with your wedges. The best wedge proximity players can control their iron attack and keep the ball close to their target. Shifting over to that PM/AM wave, watch out for Kelly Kraft, Aaron Rai, Chan Kim and Seamus Power. These are the four best proximity players from 100-150 yards over the past 24 rounds playing Friday morning. Now wedge play will not complete the scoring cycle. As we saw on the final hole at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and the U.S. Open, you need to putt as well.
The average winning score over the past five John Deere Classic’s is 22 under par. The last 10 winners average 25 sub-par scores on their way to the tractor trophy. Good putters make birdies and that’s why I have included Birdie or Better percentage statistics along with strokes gained putting and make percentages from 5-to-15 feet. Pierceson Coody, Max Greyserman, Denny McCarthy, Davis Riley and Jason Day filled that top five in the field from the PM/AM wave. Some interesting names come to light when you consider all of the details each player/ caddie team is prepared to attack with on Thursday and Friday.
I won’t go all-in on one wave, but if you are playing lineups and H2Hs these are the little edges that build a winning card for the week. Pay attention to the forecast and use our “real-time weather” newsletter link at Read The Line to follow the conditions more closely.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA Tour. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on SportsGrid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.