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Olympics 2024: Jon Rahm’s good vibes will continue, our PGA pro says
Editor's Note: This article is published in partnership with Read The Line, a Golf Digest content partner.
HENRY NICHOLLS
The FedEx Open de France is contested at Le Golf National’s Albatros course every fall on the DP World Tour. If you’re like most of our PGA Tour-centric readers, we tend to overlook our global counterparts when it comes to elite events. Unlike the Olympic golf competitions of 2016 and 2021, we have some history to research on the venue. By taking an unbiased approach to the leaderboards of the Open de France, I found some serious edges when it comes to betting the Men’s Olympic field.
Five players from the 2018 European Ryder Cup team are competing this week: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood, Alex Noren and Thorbjørn Olesen. Surely, they have fond memories of the course and confidence they can return with more success. The course setup would have been much more penal than the Open de France, but good vibes are good vibes. The average winning score of the last five French Opens is 12 under par. Soft, hot conditions have the course in perfect shape for scoring. Looking back, Justin Rose won gold at 16 under in 2016 and Xander was 18 under par in 2021.
The Olympic Golf Committee seems to embrace scoring, and I expect that trend to continue in Paris. To create sub-par scores at Le Golf National, you will need a serious combination of off-the-tee accuracy and approach acumen. Thirty players (or half the field) have not competed here before. That includes all four Americans. For those who have, I’ve learned a couple of very interesting facts. Jon Rahm is the career strokes gained leader at Le Golf National for players who have competed at least twice in the Open de France.
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Coming off an incredible effort at Royal Troon, Rahm played his opening two rounds in the terrible weather wave and still finished seventh! The Spaniard followed that effort with a win at LIV Golf London one week later. The strokes-gained leader at Le Golf National, top 10 at Troon, and a recent win … I’m taking Jon Rahm to win a medal at the Olympics (+300).
Four men have competed in all three Olympic tournaments: CT Pan, Ryan Fox, Gavin Green and Fabrizio Zanotti. Zanotti, Paraguay’s player also served as the flag bearer in the Paris Opening Ceremonies, caught my attention when I was studying the Open de France records. On that same Le Golf National strokes gained list, Fabrizio was only a couple spots behind Rahm and well inside the top 10. I don’t believe we should cue the Paraguayan anthem quite yet, but I will take Fabrizio Zanotti to finish inside the top 20 (+450). A positive course history and plenty of Olympic Games experience goes a long way in these wild weeks.
Set your alarms and get those bets in today. Paris is six hours ahead of the eastern time zone. Scottie, Xander, Rory and Rahm are guaranteed to give us the goods. And if the USA does grab the gold, these two bets can still cash.
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Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA Tour. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on SportsGrid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.