Betting Analysis
Olympics golf picks 2024: Collin Morikawa will go for gold in Paris
If you thought majors season was over, think again. OK, the Men's Golf Competition in the 2024 Summer Olympic Games isn't exactly major-championship caliber, but the mix of PGA Tour stars, LIV stars and underdog stories set to play out on the world stage certainly gives it a big-event feel. We're not mad about it.
And, obviously, we're going to bet on it. The format is as normal as ever -- 72 holes of stroke play. Nothing fancy. Let's get right into it.
Our betting panel is comprised of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds of Le Golf National, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of RunPureSports.com, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2024 Olympics.
Olympics picks 2024: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Tom Kim (28-1, FanDuel) — Tom’s playing some great golf entering the Olympics, and this is a great test for his consistent ball-striking. If he can duplicate his performance here on the greens at Le Golf National in last year’s French Open, where he gained nearly two strokes per round on the greens, he’ll be grabbing gold.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Scottie Scheffler (+400, Bet365) — This Olympics field and structure is much like the PGA Tour’s signature events, but with worse players. If there’s one thing Scottie has dominated all year, it’s the no-cut, small-field tournaments. Also, his odds this week aren’t dissimilar to what he’s been in majors with 80 more (and a lot better) players in the field.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Collin Morikawa (10-1, FanDuel) — Morikawa has the ball-striking and accuracy to play Le Golf National well. The putter is trending up long-term, too. He had a great major year with no wins and was in the bronze playoff for the 2020 Games. Getting this one would be a nice feather in the cap.
Keith Stewart, Read The Line: Jon Rahm (11-1, BetMGM) — Royal Troon was a mess for every star player in the Thursday A.M. - Friday P.M. tee time wave except Jon Rahm. The Spanish superstar played his way into contention at the Open Championship through brutal weather conditions. Although he didn’t win, that performance propelled him into winning LIV Golf London the very next week. What was once a lost season, can now become defined by a gold medal performance over Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele at Le Golf National. Rahm has two top 10s in competition on the former Ryder Cup layout in the Open de France. Jon’s elite driving and world class iron play complement each other perfectly on this precision-first design. It’s time for the bull to push his way back into the best-player conversation.
Watch the below video for our favorite bets and players we're fading for the 2024 Men's Olympics Golf event:
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Collin Morikawa (10-1, FanDuel) — Morikawa continues to be on a ball-striking tear—gaining over two strokes/tee to green per round since the PGA Championship—even better than two-time major winner Xander Schauffele and trailing only Scottie Scheffler. He’s also the 10th-best putter, too, per RickRunGood.com. He’s due for a win, and Le Golf National should be a great fit for him.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Shane Lowry (28-1, FanDuel) — If not for that bad back nine on Saturday at Royal Troon, Shane Lowry might have been a two-time Open champion. Instead, he settled for solo sixth, his fourth top-20 finish in his last six starts. The Irishman has been in form for some time now but doesn’t have a win to show for it, which should only make him hungrier to win gold. And if this will be as big of an accuracy test as everyone believes, it will be that plays right into Lowry’s hands. Don’t jump off the Shane Train just yet.
Andy Lack, Run Pure Sports and Inside Golf podcast: Collin Morikawa (10-1, FanDuel) — Collin Morikawa has put together an outstanding season, and all that is missing from his 2024 resume is a victory. The two-time major winner has now gained over three strokes ball-striking in seven straight starts, and he is coming off his best ball-striking performance of the season at the Open Championship. Le Golf National will emphasize his elite driving accuracy and middle-iron play, and I expect to find Morikawa atop the podium come Sunday in Paris.
Past results: We have another winner, with Stephen Hennessey and Andy Lack correctly predicting Davis Thompson’s maiden victory at 28-1 at the John Deere Classic. That’s Hennessey’s second of the year in the column (Akshay Bhatia 65-1 at the Valero) and Lack’s first. Our anonymous caddie leads the way with four while Christopher Powers and Pat Mayo check in next with two each.
Olympics picks 2024: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Caddie: Abraham Ancer (110-1, FanDuel) — You probably haven’t watched much of Ancer in the past few years with his move to LIV, but I’ve seen him on the range at Royal Troon and this week in France, and his short irons and wedges are still world-class. He could absolutely threaten the lead with those strengths.
Mayo: Shubhankar Sharma (300-1, FanDuel) — Sharma is riding in with legit form for someone at the bottom of the odds board. Beyond finishing top 20 at The Open, he was T-5 in Italy, then led all players in approach at the Scottish Open (T-39).
Gdula: Matt Fitzpatrick (50-1, FanDuel) — Fitz has played Le Golf National a few times with mixed results, and speaking of mixed results, that’s what he has going for him lately. With that said, his putting is stellar right now, and his balanced game should translate here.
Stewart: Matteo Manassero (200-1, FanDuel) — Since his win in March on the DP World Tour, Matteo Manassero has six top-25 results in 11 starts. Manassero’s recent return to form has him contending week after week. Matteo finished T-15 at the Scottish and T-31 at the Open. An excellent ball-striker, his game fits Le Golf National. Manassero is ranked ninth in strokes-gained/total for players in the field with 10 or more tournament rounds on the Albatross course. Familiarity with the Open de France design and nice tee-to-green resume on property give me a sign this Italian will soon be seeing gold.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Matthieu Pavon (80-1, FanDuel) — The Frenchman has been a factor in many of the big events in 2024, and in his home country, we know he’ll be extra motivated to make his way to the top of the leader board at Le Golf National.
Powers, Golf Digest: Hideki Matsuyama (45-1, FanDuel) — Accuracy test, you say? Give me all the Deki, especially at 45-1, which is firmly the zone he typically wins in. Prior to the two-week links stretch, a style that hasn’t been his strong suit over the years, Matsuyama had finished T-12 or better six times in nine starts, so he’s not that far removed from some fine play.
Lack: Sepp Straka (50-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Sepp Straka remains one of the most accurate drivers on tour, which should play beautifully at Le Golf National. Straka has a strong resume of success at golf courses with a high missed fairway penalty, including TPC Sawgrass, Muirfield Village, TPC Southwind, and PGA National, and I expect him to be fully comfortable at Le Golf National.
Olympics picks 2024: Players We’re Fading
Caddie: Ludvig Aberg (14-1, FanDuel) — Aberg has also been a factor in a lot of big events this year, but the Sunday slides are troubling. I don’t love this course fit for him … I think you could make a case for a lot of other players here other than the ultra-talented Swede.
Mayo: Alex Noren (22-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — I get he’s playing well and won the French Open at this course in 2017, but these odds are getting crazy after glancing at the names behind him.
Gdula: Ludvig Aberg (14-1, FanDuel) — It’s not the best course fit for him, though similar players have fared well at Le Golf National. The hype is real, but the number is too short, which is the bigger issue for me this week.
Stewart: Tommy Fleetwood (18-1, DraftKings) — Tommy Fleetwood has five missed cuts in six starts at the Open de France. Pundits are going to push the narrative of Fleetwood’s 2017 win and excellent Ryder Cup record, but five MCs, that’s troublesome. A mediocre Sunday at the Scottish Open led to a missed cut at the Open Championship. The DP World Tour star is suddenly looking a little inconsistent. Considering Fleetwood hasn’t won against the best in the world, and showing questionable form, I’ll pass on him for grabbing the gold this week in France.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Xander Schauffele (+550, Caesars Sportsbook) — The defending Open champion has done it all in 2024, so nobody could blame him for taking his foot off the gas just a bit with a gold medal already in his possession.
Powers, Golf Digest: Joaquin Niemann (22-1, FanDuel) — Andy cooked already below. I tweeted something similar prior to the Open after seeing a bunch of people on him despite the fact he’s shown us nothing in the bigger events. Perhaps he changes that while playing for his country this week, but the price is far too steep for someone lacking the results.
Lack: Joaquin Niemann (22-1, FanDuel) — There is no disputing Joaquin Niemann’s talent or results on the LIV Tour, but I have a difficult time paying this price tag until the young Chilean starts accumulating better finishes in stronger fields. Niemann disappointed again at the 2024 majors, failing to finish top 20 in all three appearances, and this is a hefty price to pay for a player who has consistently failed to show up on golf’s biggest stage.
Olympics picks 2024: Matchups
Caddie: Tom Kim (+100) over Joaquin Niemann (FanDuel) — I love Tom this week as you can see above, and Niemann is making his debut at Le Golf National—so I’ll take Tom at plus money in this one.
Mayo: Sepp Straka (-130) over Wyndham Clark (DraftKings) — Clark is so lost at this point he may try teeing up in Paris, Texas instead of Le Golf National.
Gdula: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-120) over Wyndham Clark (FanDuel) — Clark and Bez are trending in opposite directions for the most part, and Bezuidenhout rates out as the better course fit.
Stewart: Alex Noren (+110) over Joaquin Niemann (DraftKings) — What happens to Joaquin Niemann when he competes in elite events? Niemann is a truly world-class talent, but his record in majors is substandard to his skill set. Second at LIV London a week ago, the talented Chilean struggled with his ball-striking just prior at Royal Troon. Alex Noren won the Open de France in 2018. One of the career strokes-gained leaders in the field at Le Golf National, Noren’s ability to score on any length par 4 is a huge asset. One of the best wedge players in the world, I love the plus value on this H2H bet when it matters most and short game counts.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Abraham Ancer (-115) over Carlos Ortiz (DraftKings) — Some Vegas sharps are all over this battle of Mexican representatives, so I’ll jump aboard this one.
Powers, Golf Digest: Victor Perez (-115) over Guido Migliozzi (DraftKings) — I like both guys to play well this week at Le Golf National, but I’ve got to roll with the home-country narrative here and take Perez, who has rounded back into his former top-30 player in the world form of late.
Lack: Sepp Straka (-130) over Wyndham Clark (DraftKings) — Sepp Straka and Wyndham Clark are two players at the opposite end of the spectrum in driving accuracy. While there are more bomber-friendly courses that I give Clark the edge at, Le Golf National heavily emphasizes accuracy over distance, which plays right into Straka’s strength and Clark’s weakness.
Matchup Results from the 3M Open: Gdula: 1 for 1 (Svensson (-115) over Lawrence); Lack: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1; Caddie: 0 for 1; Powers: 0 for 1; Stewart: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Lack 19-9-2 (up 7.65 units); Mayo: 17-12-1 (up 4.61 units); Hennessey: 16-10-4 (up 4.4 units); Caddie: 17-12-0 (up 3.13 units); Gdula: 16-11-3 (up 3.05 units); Powers: 14-13-2 (up 0.74 units); Stewart: 12-17-1 (down 6.21 units)
Olympics picks 2024: Top 10s
Caddie: Tommy Fleetwood (+150, Bet365) — The Englishman has some of the strongest vibes at Le Golf National this week with his stellar 4-1 performance at the 2018 Ryder Cup and a win here on the DP World Tour.
Mayo: Tommy Fleetwood (+150, Bet365) — A fourth-place finish for Tommy is one of the most Tommy outcomes that could ever happen.
Gdula: Viktor Hovland (+190, FanDuel) — The data says you need to hit fairways and greens at Le Golf National and that chipping isn’t super vital. That suggests Hovland, whose form is weak right now. However, that’s made his number long enough to get back in.
Stewart: Tom Kim (+190, Caesars Sportsbook) — Last fall, Tom Kim traveled over to compete in a couple DP World Tour events. When asked why the young South Korean came to France, he wasn’t shy about previewing the Olympic venue. Kim finished T-6 in the 2023 Open de France. All South Korean men face mandatory military service. To avoid that mandate, Tom needs to win an Olympic medal; talk about pressure. Kim’s game fits this precision layout perfectly and he’s been planning for this week since last fall (or earlier). I’m taking the 10 places and a man who is motivated by more than medal this week.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Alex Noren (+190, Bet365) — The Swede has put together some great performances at Le Golf National in past French Opens on the DP World Tour, gaining more than 2.2 strokes per round in 23 past rounds, per RickRunGood.com. In a 60-person event, these seem like very nice odds.
Powers, Golf Digest: Corey Conners (+200, FanDuel) — Any course that places a premium on hitting the fairway is a course you’ve got to back the Canadian at.
Lack: Hideki Matsuyama (+200, DraftKings) — I’m not overly concerned with a disappointing showing out of Hideki Matsuyama at the Scottish Open and Open Championship. Links golf has never been his specialty, while Le Golf National, an Americanized, water-heavy course that emphasizes accuracy off the tee and middle-iron approach play, very much is.
Top-10 results from the 3M Open: Stewart: 1 for 1 (Jhonattan Vegas +750); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Hennessey: 11 for 30 (up 70.35 units); Mayo: 5 for 30 (down 5 units); Powers: 5 for 30 (down 5.6 units); Gdula: 5 for 30 (down 5.9 units); Caddie: 5 for 29 (down 7.05 units); Stewart: 5 for 30 (down 8.32 units); Lack: 5 for 30 (down 12.55 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. As well as contributing to Golf Digest, Andy is also the head of golf content for Run Pure Sports, where he covers PGA Tour betting and daily fantasy. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports
