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The U.S. Open (and Memorial) bets I’m making now
Editor's Note: This article is published in partnership with Read The Line, a Golf Digest content partner.
David Cannon
We have a new big three with single-digit odds atop of the betting board. Scottie Scheffler (+375), Rory McIlroy (+900), and Xander Schauffele (+900) have distanced themselves per oddsmakers ahead of The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday. Schauffele just won the PGA Championship at the Jack Nicklaus-designed Valhalla Golf Club. McIlroy has won twice in his last four starts and has not finished higher than 12th. And Scheffler? The last time Scottie competed at Muirfield Village Golf Club he gained over 20 strokes tee to green against the field and came in third!
Our Monday content is a futures conversation. Each week we post the best and worst value options on the betting board. If you take a look just one week ahead to the US Open, only one player holds odds under 10-1. If you feel strongly about Rory or Xander at Pinehurst #2, one might want to grab them now before the board trims one (or both) of them next Monday. All three are strong favorites to win this week and therefore make it tough to choose one at such short odds. Surely Scheffler is the favorite, but Rory and Xander have won more recently than the World’s No. 1.
I found the best value in the middle of the betting board with Si Woo Kim (55-1). All critics are already to chime in and say he can’t putt, but I’m here to tell you HE CAN! Granted you all are correct most weeks, but Jack Nicklaus courses tend to bring out the best in Kim’s flatstick. Si Woo has a positive putter history at PGA West’s Nicklaus Tournament course (The American Express) and Muirfield Village.
Proof positive, Kim has four straight top-20 results in Jack’s house. He also has positive strokes gained on the greens at TPC Sawgrass, Augusta National Golf Club and TPC Scottsdale. Take a look at the parallels between those leaderboards and The Memorial. Heck, even Hideki putts well at Muirfield Village. Complement a scoring flatstick with Kim’s usual ball-striking prowess and I’m grabbing him on Monday to win The Memorial.
The guy I’m not grabbing is Patrick Cantlay (+2500), sorry Chris Powers (who disagrees with me this week in our video below). Cantlay’s two wins at Muirfield Village were fueled by great driving and a solid putting stroke. Patrick’s performances in 2024 have been very mediocre by his standards. He has lost strokes on approach in his past five starts and his driving is barely half as solid as it was a year ago statistically. When you consider all of the course comparisons between Valhalla and Muirfield Village, Cantlay’s 53rd-place finish in Kentucky is very concerning.
Watch the below video for our favorite value plays and fades of the week for the 2024 Memorial Tournament:
Did I mention he entered the season’s second major at 35-1? Two wins don’t make up the value difference, and for those reasons and more I’m going to let Cantlay prove me wrong.
Most of what we see this week won’t be the best preview for Pinehurst #2 but keep an eye on the around-the-green acumen. The U.S. Open will test these guys around the greens, and those who can contend on Sunday at Muirfield Village will be more than ready to take the USGA’s test from close range.
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Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.