Betting Analysis
Wyndham Championship picks 2024: Why Sedgefield is the perfect fit for this former major champion
It’s Wyndham Championship week, which means it’s the final full-field event of the PGA Tour regular season. Livelihoods are on the line. Every FedEx Cup point matters. It makes for elite viewing year in, year out. And, elite betting opportunities.
Hopefully, we can keep it rolling for you in this column. Pat Mayo picked us another winner last week, correctly predicting Scottie Scheffler’s gold medal triumph. Collectively, we’ve nailed 12 outright winners this year. Let’s finish strong and make it a Baker’s Dozen at Sedgefield Country Club.
Our betting panel is comprised of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds of Sedgefield Country Club, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of RunPureSports.com, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2024 Wyndham Championship.
Wyndham Championship picks 2024: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Si Woo Kim (25-1, BetMGM) — Sedgefield is a great course for Si Woo Kim as it puts a premium on straight driving. He needs a good week to get into the Tour Championship and the Presidents Cup, both of which are big personal goals. So I expect him to threaten for another victory.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Brian Harman (25-1, FanDuel) — Already a perfect course fit, as in Sedgefield doesn’t penalize his lack of distance, which means it’s a wedge and putting competition. In an event that’s likely to be lift clean and place, a fairway finder like Harman can simply stalk pins. It doesn’t hurt we witnessed him win an Open in foggy conditions either.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Brian Harman (25-1, FanDuel) — Harman is the only golfer in the field to rank top 20 in both strokes-gained/approach and putting over the last 50 rounds, per datagolf, and he is top 10 in accuracy, which is key for Sedgefield.
Keith Stewart, Read The Line: Cameron Young (30-1, DraftKings) — I believe Cameron Young’s first career win will come under odd circumstances. Sometimes great players just need an outside influence to help them break through. Young is an incredible ball-striker. He’s proven it on numerous occasions, most recently shooting 59 at the Travelers. He followed that performance up with a sixth at the Rocket Mortgage. While he’s hot, I’m grabbing Young to take down the Wyndham. These conditions will call for incredible accuracy off the tee and on approach. Cam can check both boxes and is great on Bermudagrass. Watch the Wake Forest alum contend and capture his first career title in Carolina.
Watch the below video with Read The Line and SportsGrid for PGA professional Keith Stewart's full Wyndham Championship betting anaylsis:
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Aaron Rai (35-1, Bet365) — Rai’s been knocking on the door of his first PGA Tour win for a while, and this is a great spot. It’s a rare course on the PGA Tour where driving accuracy is crucial, and he’s first in this field in Good Drives Gained since June, per RickRunGood.com. He’s top five in this field in weighted strokes gained—it’s a great spot for him to finally get over the hump.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Aaron Rai (35-1, Bet365) — Rai’s last four months would indicate that he’s on the brink of a breakthrough. In his last nine events, he’s finished T-19 or better six times, three of those coming in the top four. Along the way he’s gained on approach, tee-to-green and off-the-tee in all but one start. His best performance in that stretch came in the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club, which, like Sedgefield, is a short, positional golf course designed by Donald Ross. The stars are aligning for the Englishman.
Andy Lack, Run Pure Sports and Inside Golf podcast: Brian Harman (25-1, FanDuel) — I always have interest in Brian Harman on shorter, positional golf courses, and it should not come as a surprise that he has already recorded multiple top-10 finishes at the Wyndham. Harman ranks top 15 in this field in recent approach play, driving accuracy, strokes-gained/total on short courses, and SG/total on Bermuda courses. Sedgefield is the perfect fit for the former Open Championship winner.
Past results: We have another winner, with Pat Mayo correctly predicting Scottie Scheffler’s gold medal victory at +400. That gives Pat three wins on the year, second only to our anonymous caddie who has four. Christopher Powers and Stephen Hennessey check in next with two outright hits, while Andy Lack has one.
Wyndham Championship picks 2024: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Caddie: Eric Cole (70-1, FanDuel) — Cole’s finding his form again, threatening to win the John Deere, which similarly puts a premium on keeping the ball in the fairway. He could get a hot putter and run away with this thing.
Mayo: Robert MacIntyre (55-1, FanDuel) — One of the most accomplished players in the field generally, Bob already has two wins at shorter courses in the last three months yet his price is at double the odds of an amateur.
Gdula: Denny McCarthy (60-1, FanDuel) — McCarthy’s short game is pretty much unmatched in this field, and he’s played Segefield well in his career with three top-25 finishes. The irons are fine, and if he can hit fairways, he can put himself in contention.
Stewart: Eric Cole (70-1, FanDuel) — Eric Cole just finished sixth at the Rocket Mortgage and seventh at the John Deere. The 2023 Rookie of the Year struggled early in 2024. A couple of welcome venues and he’s back to competing at a high level. Cole finished 14th here last year and then went on to grab four top fives in seven starts. Sedgefield puts less pressure on his driver and allows the wedge and putter to score. Eric can win on Bermudagrass and with his scrambling ability will play with a ton of confidence in these conditions. Add it all up and I’ll take Cole all the way to the cash window.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Andrew Putnam (90-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — My guy @TheUndefinedMystic on Twitter put me onto this Monday before the number kept getting slashed. Putnam is the best putter in this field on Bermuda, gaining more than a stroke per round over the past nine months, which is better than anyone else. He’s also 11th in total driving with his accuracy edge, and he has put together the best two-tournament stretch approach-wise in his career on the PGA Tour. It’s a great number and a great course fit.
Powers, Golf Digest: Eric Cole (70-1, FanDuel) — After missing four of five cuts between May and June, Cole’s game has finally rounded back into form, and what better time for that to happen than at a shorter golf course where he can let his irons and putter do the talking.
Lack: Eric Cole (70-1, FanDuel) — After a slow couple of months in the middle of the season, Eric Cole is starting to play some great golf again. The 36-year-old is coming off a 31st at the Open Championship where he gained over four strokes on approach, and prior to that, he finished top 10 in consecutive starts at the Rocket Mortgage and John Deere Classic.
Wyndham Championship picks 2024: Players We’re Fading
Caddie: Jordan Spieth (35-1, BetMGM) — Spieth’s struggles over the past couple of months have been on full display, and I see no signs of him getting out of his rut.
Mayo: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (28-1, BetRivers) — I like him for this course but these odds are silly. Basically, the next 10 guys on the betting board have a better chance to win.
Gdula: Billy Horschel (22-1, FanDuel) — Horschel has played well at Sedgefield and just had a run at the Open. With that said, he’s the worst iron player among the favorites and isn’t the most accurate driver, either.
Stewart: Shane Lowry (18-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Why is Shane Lowry playing in the Wyndham Championship? Lowry has been here six times with one top-10 finish in 2017. Shane is also sitting in 10th position on the FedEx Cup points list. There’s a bonus for the top 10, but really? It’s been a busy global schedule, and the Irishman is pushing himself for an extra week after a fatigue-filled adventure in Paris. With the weather forecast and the need for rest ahead of a deep playoff run, I’m wary of Lowry’s dedication to battling Debby for four straight rounds. I’m going to skip Shane until there is a better fit in the FedEx Cup playoffs.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Min Woo Lee (28-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — This is Min Woo’s first appearance at Sedgefield, and he’s historically an inaccurate driver of the ball, which is a disadvantage here. His power off the tee will be mitigated at Sedgefield.
Powers, Golf Digest: Jordan Spieth (35-1, BetMGM) — Don’t want to read too much into it, but Spieth informing everyone that his nagging wrist injury needs to be addressed this off-season tells me his mind is already on that. Unfortunately, it’s a lost year for Jordy, who will need a miracle to make it to East Lake.
Lack: Cameron Young (20-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — While I continue to believe in Cameron Young’s talent, Sedgefield may not be the best fit for his skill set. The Donald Ross design heavily emphasizes driving accuracy, wedge play, and putting inside 15 feet, and none of these skills are tremendous strengths for Young.
Wyndham Championship picks 2024: Matchups
Caddie: Taylor Moore (+125) over Jordan Spieth (DraftKings) — This is a tough course when you’re not striking the ball well, which is where Spieth is at the moment. Taylor Moore is righting his early-summer struggles with good finishes at the 3M and the Rocket Mortgage, so I see a nice edge here.
Mayo: Si Woo Kim (+125) over Sungjae Im (DraftKings) — Look, Sungjae is the deserving favorite in this event, but Si Woo has dominated Sedgefield over the past decade. This is just a crazy for a player with four top-five finishes at this event in seven starts.
Gdula: Mackenzie Hughes (-115) over Taylor Moore (FanDuel) — In a matchup between two great putters, it’s Hughes who stands out. He’s substantially better with the putter and is a better iron player, too.
Stewart: Taylor Moore (+125) over Jordan Spieth (DraftKings) — Jordan Spieth’s last top 10 was in early April at the Valero. Spieth has struggled all season with his approach game and now his putting. Unfortunately, Sedgefield calls for both skills to contend. At 63rd on the FedEx Cup points list he had to play this week. Taylor Moore just finished 10th at Rocket Mortgage and 12th at the 3M Open. Stateside, he has been great, and he loves Bermudagrass. Take Taylor and cash this ticket whenever Round 2 ends.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Aaron Rai (+105) over Billy Horschel (DraftKings) — The projected money line on this matchup is Aaron Rai -140 over Horschel, per RickRunGood.com’s head-to-head matchup predictor. Rai also gets a big edge in my model for his better ball-striking stats over the past two months. It’s scary to go against Horschel at a course where he’s had such good form, but Rai has been more consistent week to week, which is what you want in a matchup.
Powers, Golf Digest: Aaron Rai (+105) over Billy Horschel (DraftKings) — I think Rai is going to win so he better beat Billy Horschel if that’s going to happen. Horschel is still getting a ton of credit from the oddsmakers for that T-2 at The Open. Rai seems like the far better course fit here.
Lack: Brian Harman (-110) over Shane Lowry (DraftKings) — I’ve already shared my enthusiasm for Brian Harman as my official pick to win, and I love him in a matchup against Shane Lowry. The Irishman is coming off an emotional week in Paris for the Summer Olympics, and his course history at Sedgefield is middling at best.
Matchup Results from the Olympics: Caddie: 1 for 1 (T. Kim (+100) over Niemann); Powers: 1 for 1 (Perez (-115) over Migliozzi); Lack: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1; Gdula: 0 for 1; Stewart: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Lack 19-10-2 (up 6.65 units); Caddie: 18-12-0 (up 4.13 units); Mayo: 17-13-1 (up 3.61 units); Hennessey: 16-11-4 (up 3.4 units); Gdula: 16-12-3 (up 2.05 units); Powers: 15-13-2 (up 1.61 units); Stewart: 12-18-1 (down 7.21 units)
Wyndham Championship picks 2024: Top 10s
Caddie: Sungjae Im (+200, BetRivers) — Sungjae’s hitting the ball as well as anyone right now. He hits it so straight off the tee, so it’s no surprise that he’s had success at Sedgefield. It’s a great course with his game and success on Bermuda putting surfaces.
Mayo: C.T. Pan (+600, DraftKings) — The Panimal should have won this event a few years back, but an untimely OB ball coming home handed the tournament to J.T. Poston. Revenge time. Like Harman, Pan hits a bunch of fairways and can get DIALED IN from 125 and in. Fresh off representing his country in Paris, Pan can ride that momentum against a weaker field.
Gdula: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+360, FanDuel) — Bezuidenhout rode a hot putter to a 16th-place finish at the Olympics, but he drove it well at Le Golf National despite weak irons. He’s made all three cuts at Sedgefield in his career and is golfing at a peak level for himself.
Stewart: Sungjae Im (+200, BetRivers) — The tournament favorite is getting 2-1 odds for a top 10; I’m in. Sungjae Im’s season can be divided into two parts: pre- and post-Masters. Since the that trip down Magnolia Lane, Im has amassed eight top-12 finishes in 10 starts. Sungjae’s been sensational and I expect that trend to continue at a venue where he has three top 10s in his last five starts. Take the 10 places and the hottest player in the field and we’ll collect our third top 10 panel win in a row.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Jhonattan Vegas (+500, DraftKings) — The 3M Open winner rates out as the top golfer in my model this week, ranking second in SG/total since June and sixth for SG/approach. He’s extremely accurate off the tee (third in Good Drive Percentage), and so I’d expect him to put up another strong finish.
Powers, Golf Digest: Keith Mitchell (+600, DraftKings) — Keith Mitchell’s ball-striking numbers have been ridiculously good over the last few months, yet he has just one top 10 to show for it. The putter has failed him. At Sedgefield, though, he gets to putt on Bermudagrass, the only putting surface he’s in the green on. If the flat stick cooperates, he’s live to win this thing.
Lack: Si Woo Kim (+240, DraftKings) — Si Woo Kim is already a former champion at the Wyndham, and I would not be surprised if he added another victory to his resume. The four-time PGA Tour winner has been a model of consistency this year, with 13 top-30 finishes in 19 starts. Only the putter has truly held him back from contending, but Kim has found considerable success on these greens in the past.
Top-10 results from the Olympics: Powers: 1 for 1 (Corey Conners +200); Lack: 1 for 1 (Hideki Matsuyama +200); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Tom Kim +190); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Tommy Fleetwood +150); Caddie: 1 for 1 (Tommy Fleetwood +150); Hennessey: 0 for 1; Gdula: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Hennessey: 11 for 31 (up 69.35 units); Mayo: 6 for 31 (down 3.5 units); Powers: 6 for 31 (down 3.6 units); Caddie: 6 for 30 (down 5.55 units); Stewart: 6 for 31 (down 6.42 units); Gdula: 5 for 31 (down 6.9 units); Lack: 6 for 31 (down 10.55 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. As well as contributing to Golf Digest, Andy is also the head of golf content for Run Pure Sports, where he covers PGA Tour betting and daily fantasy. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports
